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Oil and Dollar will play major role for every countries economy.
There is always a inverse relation between Oil and Dollar. As the oil price
increases the dollar value is depreciated which decrease the dollar inflow for
the country. It will Increase the foreign exchange deficit or decrease the foreign
exchange surplus. Donald Trump Re-imposing sanctions will effect Iranian
economic growth to decrease and will have negative effect and India and china
but the Economic growth in other middle east country will high. Overall the
world GDP will suffer because of this decision as India and china are the major
drivers for the world GDP growth.

Conclusion

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India is the third largest importer of oil in the world. Once
sanction were lifted India increased its import from Iran. Iran had long
remained among top suppliers for India, but Western sanctions forced New Delhi
to significantly curtail its oil imports from the country. Once sanction are
reimposed and oil price per barrel would shoot up to $80 per barrel which will
raise the inflation in the country. There is every chance the Modi led govt
would be eyeing for early election. India is majorly dependent on Foreign
institutional investors for it surplus in foreign exchange balance. Once the
inflation is set to raise the economic activities will slow down which will
decrease the investment from FII. India will have to look domestic source for
the oil and should give tax benefit to make it investor friendly economy.

India

China is one of the biggest importer of oil. After sanction were
lifted it started to increase the import of oil from Iran. China imports oil
majorly from Iran and Saudi Arabia. It imports more than 30% of the oil from
Iran and rest from other countries. Once the Sanctions are reimposed and oil
price per barrel has reached $80 barrel china economy will be badly hit. There
will be overall inflation in the economy. The automobile sector will suffer and
overall growth rate of china will be expected to come down. China may retaliate
by selling US Treasury bonds which china holds around $3200 Billion. Once china
starts selling these bonds US Dollar will depreciate in the value which will
slow down the economic growth of the US.

China

 

Iran is biggest exporter of oil. Once
the sanction are imposed on the Iranian oil the UAE will increase its Oil price
and Economy of the UAE will be benefited. UAE will look into enter long term
contracts with China and India for oil supply.

UAE

 

Iranian Oil production increased when
the sanction were lifted it increased to 3.8million barrel a day in this around
2.59 million barrel a day were exported. The production of Iranian oil compare
to total OPEC production would be around 14% and Saudi Arabia accounts for the
31% of the production. Donald Trump reimposing the sanction on the Iranian oil
will benefit Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and 
Russia will eventually increase its production and will hike the price.
Saudi Arabia which one the major ally of the US will encourage US to impose
stricter action against Iranian oil.

OPEC
on Nuclear Deal

Iranian officials have signalled that
Tehran would consider remaining in the nuclear deal even if the US walks away
so long as it serves the country’s national interests. The Iranian leadership
is likely to carefully consider if Europe can offer a pathway for Iran to
continue. If Europe fails to end the deadlock between president trump and
nuclear deal than the relationship between the US and Iran will worsen which
may lead cold war situation. More UN sanction may be imposed on the Iran on
trade and nuclear project. Iran may support North Korea in its nuclear ambition
in future which may still worsen the relationship between the US and Iran.

Iran on the Nuclear
Deal

The president Donald trump dislikes Iranian nuclear deal for the
following reasons firstly it was negotiated and signed in the period of
President Barrack Obama. Secondly it does not cover ballistic missiles. Thirdly
it does not cover activities supporting terrorism. The president tried to renegotiate
the terms with Iran but Trump refuses to certify Iran’s compliance of terms of
the Nuclear Agreement.  Trump not
honoring the deal has already isolated US in this situation.  Iran has already claimed the breach of
agreement.

Donald Trumps on
Nuclear Deal

During July 2015 the permanent member of UN
security council agreed with Iran to remove certain international sanction in
exchange Iran will not continue its Nuclear program. The sanctions relief led to Iran receiving
billions of dollars in unfrozen funds and opened its markets back up to many
foreign investors. The Nuclear deal contains to decrease the Uranium stock pile
by 98%. It must maintain the Uranium enrichment up to 3.67%.  Under Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA), it will
be limited to installing no more than 5060 centrifuges. Iran agreed to redesign
the Ark reactor so that it cannot produce weapon grade plutonium. Iran is required to allow IAEA inspectors to access any site they
deem suspicious. IAEA will act as the watchdog for the entire deal.

Contents of Nuclear Deal

During the world war II Iran was invaded by both
U.K and soviet Nation. During 1952 Iranian Prime minister Mohammed Mossadeq
began to nationalize the Angelo Iranian oil company which was established by
U.K.  The company shared only minor
amount of profit with the Iranian government. American president Truman
supported the Iranian Prime minster and pressed UK to enter into the deal. But
during 1953  the Republican President Dwight D. Eisenhower replaced Democratic President Harry S. Truman. President Dwight D. Eisenhower carried out joint operation with the British to
overthrow the Iranian Prime Minster 
Mohammed Mossadeq regime and reinstall the monarchy rule under shah
which fueled nationalist movement under the Ayotolla ruhollah khomeini  during 1979. The Khomeini supporters seized
US embassy and held Americans as their hostages.  The Iranian revolution made  Ayotolla ruhollah khomeini as the supreme
leader of Iran. Within the year of end of revolution Saddam Hussain invaded
iran and the war went on for next eight years. America supported Iraq providing
money, Technology and weapons. In 1988 U.S military operating in the gulf
committed a atrocity when an Iranian jet line was shot down by the U.S military
killing 290 passenger on board. Ayotolla ruhollah khomeini died on 1989 and Ali
Khamenei became his successor. Although Iran pursed refining uranium from the
1950 but it was not up till mid 2000 Iran step its power to become the nuclear
power under the Iranian president mahmoud ahmadinejad. Than in 2010 US Israeli
computer worm “stuxnet” Virus attack Iranian nuclear reactor. It causes heavy
damage to Iranian centrifuges in addition united nation approves new sanction
on Iran’s nuclear program. In 2015 new president was elected Hassan Rouhani.
Iranian president appoints Mohammad
Javad Zarif as the
foreign minister to negotiate with the west for the nuclear deal. In 2015 under
obama admiration nuclear deal was struck with the Iranian government.

Brief History

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